Abstract
This study aimed to analyze the change in foreign exchange reserves which are affected by the state of national income, exchange rates, interest rates and inflation. This study was conducted to see the effect of the independent variable on the dependent variable in the long term and short term. The method used is the Error Correction Model (ECM). This study shows that the long-term effects of the variables national income and the exchange rate has a significant positive effect on foreign exchange reserves, while in the short term have a negative effect but not significant. Variable interest rates on long-term have a positive effect but not significant and in the short term have a significant negative effect on foreign exchange reserves. Variable inflation in the long term and short term no significant effect on the foreign exchange reserves. Results Error Correction Term (ECT) in this study amounted to 1,065, which means that in the short-term foreign exchange reserves will undergo considerable change and requires quite a long time to come back into balance.Keyword : Reserves, National Income, Exchange Rates, Interest Rates and Inflation ECM, ECT
Highlights
This study shows that the long-term effects of the variables national income and the exchange rate has a significant positive effect on foreign exchange reserves, while in the short term have a negative effect but not significant
Buletin Ekonomi Moneter Dan Perbankan, Periode 1980.1-200.4”. tesis
Summary
Error Correction Term (ECT) in this study amounted to 1,065, which means that in the short-term foreign exchange reserves will undergo considerable change and requires quite a long time to come back into balance. Abstrak : Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis perubahan cadangan devisa yang dipengaruhi oleh keadaan pendapatan nasional, nilai tukar, suku bunga dan inflasi. Hasil penelitian ini memperlihatkan bahwa pada jangka panjang pengaruhvariabel pendapatan nasional dan nilai tukar mempunyai pengaruh positif signifikan terhadap cadangan devisa, sedangkan pada jangka pendek mempunyai pengaruh yang negatif tapi tidak signifikan. Variabel suku bunga pada jangka panjang mempunyai pengaruh yang positif tapi tidak signifikandan pada jangka pendek mempunyai pengaruh negatif signifikan terhadap cadangan devisa. Hasil Error Correction Term (ECT) pada penelitian ini sebesar 1,065, yang artinya pada jangka pendek cadangan devisa akan mengalami perubahan cukup besar dan membutuhkan waktu yang cukup lama untuk kembali mencapai keseimbangan. Penelitian ini dilandasi oleh teori ekonomi internasional yang dilakukan melalui analisis neraca pembayaran (NPI).Menurut Krugman (2003:29) cadangan devisa adalah aset-aset luar negeri yang dikuasai oleh bank sentral sebagai jasa pamungkas untuk menghadapi kesulitan ekonomi nasional. Kejadian ini sudah terlihat sejak jatuhnya mata uang Thailand (bath) terhadap mata uang Amerika yang akhirnya mempengaruhi keadaan mata uang Indonesia dan berpengaruh kepada sektor ekonomi
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