Abstract
This study aims to analyze the factors that influence Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves by proving cointegration (long-run relationships) and causality (reciprocal relationships). The data used is time series data during the period January 2014-December 2018. The analytical method used in this study is cointegration test and granger causality with the approach of auto regressive lag (ARDL). The cointegration test results using the Bound test test indicated that between the variables of foreign exchange reserves, exports, the exchange rate, the BI Rate and inflation had a stability relationship of movements in the long run. While the results of the causality test showed that there is a one-way relationship between foreign exchange reserves and exports, and so there was a unidirectional relationship between foreign exchange reserves and the exchange rate and the same relationship between the BI Rate and foreign exchange reserves. Keywords: foreign exchange reserves, exports, exchange rates, BI Rate, inflation.
Highlights
This study aims to analyze the factors that influence Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves by proving cointegration and causality
This study aims to analyze the factors that influence Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves by proving cointegration (long-run relationships) and causality (reciprocal relationships)
Pengaruh Kurs , JUB DAN Tingkat Inflasi Terhadap Ekspor , Impor dan Cadangan Devisa Indonesia
Summary
Nilai tukar Rupiah terus melemah dari tahun 2012 sampai 2017, sedangkan cadangan devisa terus mengalami peningkatan, turunnya BI Rate tidak menyebabkan cadangan devisa menurun tapi justru meningkat. Penelitian yang memberikan fokus pada ekspor, impor, nilai tukar, dan inflasi terhadap cadangan devisa Indonesia telah diteliti oleh (Agustina, 2014), (Sonia & Setiawina, 2016), dan (Benny, 2013). Menurut teori Keynesian mengatakan bahwa apabila ekspor lebih besar dari pada impor, maka hal ini dapat menyebabkan surplus pada neraca pembayaran internasional yang selanjutnya akan meningkatkan posisi cadangan devisa suatu negara dan begitupula sebaliknya (Nopirin, 2008).Peningkatan ekspor mampu meningkatkan cadangan devisa Indonesia dari 105.931 Miliar USD sampai sebesar 130.196 Miliar US $, hal ini disebabkan karena meningkatnya ekspor nonmigas, Crude Palm Oil (CPO),batu bata, permata, dan tembaga, dengan peningkatan ini berdampak positif pada tingkat pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia dan menambah cadangan devisa negara. Namun yang terjadi pada tahun 2014 dan 2017 nilai tukar rupiah melemah sebesar Rp. 12.440 dan Rp. 13.548 tetapi cadangan devisa meningkat, justru ini berbanding terbalik dengan teori. Selanjutnya bagian kedua penelitian ini membahas kajian teoritis di variabel-variabel terkait, pembatasan kajian dan teknik analisis yang dipaparkan dibagian tiga untuk melihat hasil dan analisis dengan dilihat dari pengaruh dan hubungan dari penelitian ini
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