Abstract

This article focused on analyze (1) Effect of the money supply, income, domestic interest rates, inflation and the trade balance to the exchange rate in Indonesia. (2) The influence of domestic interest rates, output and the exchange rate on the money supply in Indonesia. Data used time series of (I year quartal 2000 – IV year quartal 2010). This article use analyzer model equation of simultaneous with method of Two Stage Least Squared (TSLS). The result of research concludes that (1) the money supply have a significant and positive impact on the exchange rate, incomes have significant and positive impact on the exchange rate, domestic interest rates significantly and negatively on the exchange rate and inflation have a significant and positive impact on the exchange rate. While the trade balance is not significant and negative effect on the exchange rate in Indonesia. If the money supply increases, the exchange rate will also increase or depreciate. If income increases, the exchange rate will depreciate. If the domestic interest rate increases, the exchange rate will appreciate. If inflation increases, the exchange rate will also depreciate. (2) domestic interest rates, output, and the exchange rate significantly influence the money supply in Indonesia.

Highlights

  • Artikel ini berfokus pada analisis (1) Pengaruh jumlah uang beredar, pendapatan, tingkat bunga domestik, inflasi dan neraca perdagangan terhadap nilai tukar di Indonesia. (2) Pengaruh tingkat bunga domestik, output dan nilai tukar terhadap jumlah uang beredar di Indonesia

  • This article focused on analyze (1) Effect of the money supply, income, domestic interest rates, inflation and the trade balance to the exchange rate in Indonesia

  • Money Demand and Exchange Rate Determination Under Hyperinflation: Conceptual Issues and Evidence from Yugoslavia, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol 32, No., November 2000, pp.785806

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Summary

Analisis Induktif

Berdasarkan pengolahan data dengan bantuan program Eviews 6, diperoleh hasil olahan data untuk berbagai uji dan model analisis sebagai berikut : Uji Stasioner. Uji stasioner yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah uji akar unit (unit root test) yang dikembangkan oleh David Dickey dan Wayne Fuller, atau yang lebih dikenal dengan uji akar unit Dickey-Fuller (DF). Apabila nilai statistik Dickey-Fuller (Dickey-Fuller test statistic) probabilitasnya kecil dari α = 0,05, maka H0 ditolak atau Ha diterima yang artinya variabel tersebut stasioner. Variabel tersebut dapat stasioner apakah itu pada level, 1st difference, atau 2nd difference. Sebaliknya apabila nilai statistik Dickey-Fuller probabilitasnya besar dari α = 0,05, maka H0 diterima atau Ha ditolak yang artinya variabel tersebut tidak stasioner atau mengandung masalah unit root

Nilai Probabilitas
Uji Kausalitas Granger
MS Granger Cause E
Hasil Estimasi Persamaan Simultan Model Persamaan Kurs
DAFTAR KEPUSTAKAAN
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