Abstract
This paper discusses a model to evaluate uncertainties and success probabilities in petroleum exploration. In the model, assessment of undiscovered oil and gas potential can be made in a probability format, which is based on petroleum system analyses. The evaluated area is mapped in order to define the essential elements of petroleum systems, when the probabilities of occurrence of diagnostic factors are calculated using the presence and absence of guides in productive and dry areas. The study implies, organization of petroleum system oriented databases and statistical analysis of their component data sets. For the estimation of uncertainties a method of updating probabilities is presented in two steps: 1) description and modeling of potential petroleum systems in the evaluated area, based on the essential elements (generation, reservoir, charge, retention and efficiency) and 2) categorization of selected data in control-areas to calculate the necessity and sufficiency conditions of each variable, expressed as probabilities, according to the frequency of occurrence of diagnostic criteria in positive and negative drilled areas.
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