An updated examination of the predictors of running away from foster care in the United States and trends over ten years (2010–2019)

Abstract

BackgroundAmong the more than 400,000 children in foster care, there is a small group who will run away from care and face increased risks of negative outcomes. Previous studies on the predictors of running away from care use limited samples or outdated data. ObjectiveThe present study replicates and extends prior research by presenting an updated analysis of predictors of running away from foster care as well as 10-year trends in the prevalence and predictors of running from care. Participants and settingThis study uses the Adoption and Foster Care Analysis and Reporting System (AFCARS) data to assess the runaway status of 597,911 children who were involved in foster care in 2019. Longitudinal trend analyses utilize AFCARS data from 2010 to 2019. MethodUsing chi-square/t-tests and binary logistic regression analyses, this study investigates individual- and case-level predictors of running away from foster care programs. ResultsFindings show that girls (OR = 1.29, p < .001), African American children (OR = 1.89, p < .001), and older children (OR = 1.61, p < .001) are at increased risk of running away from foster care. Removal reasons such as child substance abuse (OR = 1.65, p < .001), abandonment (OR = 1.38, p < .001), and child behavioral problems (OR = 1.31, p < .001) are also associated with an increased risk. Analysis of 10-year trends shows a steady decline in running from care: 1.40% in 2010 to 0.98% in 2019. The profile of risk factors is stable overall, with a few notable exceptions. ConclusionsThe percent of children running from foster care is at a 10-year low. Prevention and intervention efforts regarding running from care must focus on the needs of African American and Hispanic children, especially girls, as well as children with substance use or behavior problems. Given that programs rarely have prospective information regarding why children leave care and the negative consequences of labeling children as “runaways,” shifting language to “missing from care” should be considered.