An updated assessment of lightning-related fatality and injury risk in Canada: 2002–2017

Abstract

Cloud-to-ground lightning is a common and dangerous natural atmospheric hazard in southern Canada. Previous research conducted by the author and colleagues, using data from 1994 to 2003, estimated that lightning directly or indirectly kills 9–10 people and injures 92–164 more each year in Canada. Repeating the analysis using data from the same government agency and media sources for the 2002–2017 period, the author found that lightning-related mortality decreased to 2–3 deaths per year, roughly 0.08 deaths per million population. An average of 180 lightning-related injuries each year (5.3 per million population) was estimated for the same period, slightly greater than the maximum documented in the 1994–2003 analysis. About half of the drop in mortality between periods may be attributed to the reduction in reported deaths associated with lightning-ignited municipal fires since 2000. The remainder may be due to a combination of greater availability and use of communication technology, faster emergency response and medical treatment, and increased public awareness of lightning hazards and safety. Further research is required to explain why lightning-related injury rates have remained stable; better understand the interaction of technological, behavioral and other factors; and to determine the efficacy of past and potential future safety interventions.