An updatable and comprehensive global cargo maritime network and strategic seaborne cargo routing model for global containerized and bulk vessel flow estimation

Abstract

The global maritime system provides the backbone of logistics operations for global supply chains and international trade. This paper aims to develop a unifying global network representation and strategic, system-wide decision model, the Strategic Cargo Routing Model, incorporating both liner and bulk shipping markets to estimate real-world traffic flows and study traffic patterns at the global scale. Specifically, taking a shipper's perspective, containerized and bulk movements are jointly modelled within a mixed-integer linear program that includes inbound, outbound, and transshipment cargo flows at ports. An iterative approach that combines heuristic Gradient Descent and Relax-and-Fix Decomposition methods is proposed for the calibration and solution of the Strategic Cargo Routing Model over a proposed joint liner and bulk services Global Cargo Shipping Network representation. The Global Cargo Shipping Network contains 161 seaports covering 52 countries. It is created from updatable, publicly available, data sources, and all data needed for the network representation are made available. Sufficient network details, as well as data sources and methods for extracting needed inputs, are given to allow others to use and update the network. Using the developed maritime network, mathematical model and calibration-solution methodology, 2018 global maritime traffic flow patterns were estimated. The estimates were found to achieve a 91% fit overall to real-world average annual port throughputs. This strategic model provides support to evaluate future, real-world, worldwide changes, such as increased seaborne trade demand, new routes, shipping infrastructure expansion, and transport policies.