An Unrelenting Epidemic of Violence: Trends of Homicide Mortality in Mexico, 1998–2020

Abstract

The primary objective was to analyze the trend of premature homicide mortality in Mexico between 1998 and 2020 for females and males at national and state levels. Using data on deaths from Mexico's vital statistics, we estimated homicide age-standardized death rates and trends of years of life lost (YLL). To estimate the premature homicide mortality trends, we conducted a joinpoint regression analysis. In 2020, Mexico reached the maximum number of homicides in the past decades (36,773 homicides), which was more than four times the number of homicides in 2007. Homicide premature mortality increased since 2008 and in 2020 was almost double than at the turn of the century. YLL homicide rates for males were higher than for females in all age groups. Homicide premature mortality peaked between the ages of 20 and 44 years for males and 20 and 34 years for females. The trends in homicide mortality in Mexico's states were not homogeneous. Mortality studies are critical in the descriptive epidemiology of violence. Current public policies have failed to ensure the safety of the country's citizens and to decrease homicide and crime rates and should focus on premature mortality, as well as addressing the structural causes of the problem.