An uncertainty approach to assessment of climate change impacts on the Zambezi River Basin

Major US electric utility climate pledges have the potential to collectively reduce power sector emissions by one-third

Better information on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and mitigation potential in the agricultural sector is necessary to manage these emissions and identify responses that are consistent with the food security and economic development priorities of countries. Critical activity data (what crops or livestock are managed in what way) are poor or lacking for many agricultural systems, especially in developing countries. In addition, the currently available methods for quantifying emissions and mitigation are often too expensive or complex or not sufficiently user friendly for widespread use.The purpose of this focus issue is to capture the state of the art in quantifying greenhouse gases from agricultural systems, with the goal of better understanding our current capabilities and near-term potential for improvement, with particular attention to quantification issues relevant to smallholders in developing countries. This work is timely in light of international discussions and negotiations around how agriculture should be included in efforts to reduce and adapt to climate change impacts, and considering that significant climate financing to developing countries in post-2012 agreements may be linked to their increased ability to identify and report GHG emissions (Murphy et al 2010, CCAFS 2011, FAO 2011).

We used the Agriculture and Land Use National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Software to estimate the total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the Nigerian agriculture sector in 2010. We went ahead to project future GHG emissions up to 2050. Two alternative GHG mitigation scenarios such as moderate (MS) and aggressive (AS) scenarios were developed and examined. Our results showed that total GHG emissions from Nigerian agriculture in 2010 were around 34.9million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent. GHG emissions from livestock accounted for about 69.2 % of the total emissions, making it the largest source of GHG emissions in the sector. Nigeria's agriculture GHG emissions are expected to increase by 94 % in 2050 relative to 2010 levels. Mitigation strategies in the Nigerian agriculture sector that do not compromise food security are limited. However, with the implementation of different GHG mitigation strategies in the alternative scenarios, emissions are expected to fall by around 13.2 % and 26.7 % by 2050 in the MS and AS, respectively, compared to the baseline scenario. While the mitigation potentials are significant, we argue that robust and dedicated policies are required to accelerate climate-smart agriculture in Nigeria.

ABSTRACTPorts as an industry account for ∼3% of the total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions worldwide. The Port of Chennai, India, uses an enormous amount of electricity and diesel for intermodal transportation of goods and for other essential services. The inventory of GHG emissions in the Port of Chennai is made by accounting the various facilities of the port along with the housing colony and fishing harbor which come under the management of the Port of Chennai. Quantification of GHG emissions is made following the guidelines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and World Port Climate Initiative (WPCI). The estimation of GHG emissions showed that 280,558 tonnes of CO2e/year was generated from the port and port-related facilities. Several GHG mitigation strategies and their impact are quantified and discussed. The technology suggestions presented in the paper will be very useful to plan effective mitigation strategies incorporating technological advancement and management policies.

The public health co-benefits that curbing climate change would have may make greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation strategies more attractive and increase their implementation. The primary purpose of this chapter is to review the evidence on GHG mitigation measures and the related health co-benefits; identify potential mechanisms, uncertainties, and knowledge gaps; and provide recommendations to promote further development and implementation of climate change response policies at both national and global levels. Evidence of the effects of GHG abatement measures and related health co-benefits has been observed at regional, national, and global levels, involving both low- and high-income societies. GHG mitigation actions have mainly been taken in five sectors—energy generation, transport, food and agriculture, households, and industry—consistent with the main sources of GHG emissions. GHGs and air pollutants to a large extent stem from the same sources and are inseparable in terms of their atmospheric evolution and effects on ecosystems; thus, reductions in GHG emissions are usually, although not always, estimated to have cost-effective co-benefits for public health. Some integrated mitigation strategies involving multiple sectors, which tend to create greater health benefits, have also been investigated, and this chapter discusses the pros and cons of different mitigation measures, issues with existing knowledge, priorities for research, and policy implications. Findings from this study can play a role not only in motivating large GHG emitters to make decisive changes in GHG emissions, but also in facilitating cooperation at international, national, and regional levels to promote GHG mitigation policies that protect public health from climate change and air pollution simultaneously.

Brazilian cattle production is mostly carried out in pastures, and the need to mitigate the livestock's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and its environmental footprint has become an important requirement. The adoption of well-suited breeds and the intensification of pasture-based livestock production systems are alternatives to optimize the sector's land use. However, further research on tropical systems is necessary. The objective of this research was to evaluate the effect of Holstein (HO) and Jersey–Holstein (JE x HO) crossbred cows in different levels of pasture intensification (continuous grazing system with low stocking rate–CLS; irrigated rotational grazing system with high stocking rate–RHS), and the interaction between these two factors on GHG mitigation. Twenty-four HO and 24 JE x HO crossbred dairy cows were used to evaluate the effect of two grazing systems on milk production and composition, soil GHG emissions, methane (CH4) emission, and soil carbon accumulation (0–100 cm). These variables were used to calculate carbon balance (CB), GHG emission intensity, the number of trees required to mitigate GHG emission, and the land-saving effect. The number of trees necessary to mitigate GHG emission was calculated, considering the C balance within the farm gate. The mitigation of GHG emissions comes from the annual growth rate and accumulation of C in eucalyptus trees' trunks. The CB of all systems and genotypes presented a deficit in carbon (C); there was no difference for genotypes, but RHS was more deficient than CLS (-4.99 to CLS and −28.72 to RHS ton CO2e..ha−1.year−1). The deficit of C on GHG emission intensity was similar between genotypes and higher for RHS (−0.480 to RHS and −0.299 to CLS kg CO2e..kg FCPCmilk−1). Lower GHG removals (0.14 to CLS higher than 0.02 to RHS kg CO2e..kg FCPCmilk−1) had the greatest influence on the GHG emission intensity of milk production. The deficit number of trees to abatement emissions was higher to HO (−46.06 to HO and −38.37 trees/cow to JE x HO) and to RHS (−51.9 to RHS and −33.05 trees/cow to CLS). However, when the results are expressed per ton of FCPCmilk, there was a difference only between pasture management, requiring −6.34 tree. ton FCPCmilk−1 for the RHS and −3.99 tree. ton FCPCmilk−1 for the CLS system. The intensification of pastures resulted in higher milk production and land-saving effect of 2.7 ha. Due to the reservation of the pasture-based dairy systems in increasing soil C sequestration to offset the GHG emissions, especially enteric CH4, planting trees can be used as a mitigation strategy. Also, the land-save effect of intensification can contribute to the issue, since the area spared through the intensification in pasture management becomes available for reforestation with commercial trees.

Bridging the data gap: engaging developing country farmers in greenhouse gas accounting

Greenhouse gas emissions from waste sectors in China during 2006–2019: Implications for carbon mitigation

Abstract. This study assesses greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation options for the agriculture sector. The Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) model was used to develop a framework to assess future trends in energy demand and associated GHG emissions for the agriculture sector and to assess various GHG mitigation options associated with energy consumption. A business-as-usual (reference) scenario and 32 GHG mitigation scenarios were developed for the years 2009-2050 using the LEAP model. A case study for Alberta, Canada, was conducted. In the model, GHG mitigation scenarios were developed for the energy demand side (e.g., farm machines, farm transportation, lighting, and ventilation) based on efficiency improvements and the use of renewable energy. The mitigation scenarios were divided into two planning horizons based on technology penetration: slow penetration (2009-2050) and fast penetration (2009-2030). For each planning horizon, 16 scenarios were assessed. Of all farm machines, efficient diesel tractors have the highest GHG mitigation potential: 12.35 MT of CO2 equivalent by 2050 and 4.7 MT of CO2 equivalent by 2030. In addition, GHG abatement cost curves show that biodiesel tractors and efficient diesel tractors have the highest GHG mitigation potential, with attractive abatement costs of -$62 and -$11 tonne-1 of CO2 mitigated by 2050, respectively. Keywords: Abatement cost, Agriculture sector, Energy efficiency, GHG mitigation, LEAP model.

To cope with increasing demands for food, feed, and energy along with environmental challenges due to climate change, the agricultural sector has a unique opportunity to meet sustainable development goals set by the United Nations through innovative and regenerative agriculture practices that enhance agricultural productivity, ecosystem services, and human well‐being simultaneously. Among many sustainability metrics to measure agriculture's impacts on sustainability and contribution to its improvements, we focus on the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the agricultural sector as a key environmental indicator to assess several GHG mitigation practices from the perspective of life‐cycle analysis applied to agriculture. We first analyze the key factors contributing to farming GHG emissions and then identify a range of GHG mitigation strategies, such as optimizing farm fertilizer/chemical inputs, manufacturing low‐carbon fertilizer/chemical, reducing on‐farm energy/fuel consumption, and increasing soil carbon stocks. Furthermore, we elaborate on how these strategies can be successfully implemented to different scales of farming through policies and incentives and better quantification and verification schemes for effective policies and incentives. Finally, we present the holistic evaluation of agricultural GHG emissions in terms of landscape management approaches and provide ecosystem services to address social and economic issues.

The greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of the global ceramic production is estimated at more than 400 Mt CO2/year, which have increased steadily from economic growth. Among ceramic industries, ceramic tableware industry (CTI) is a highly energy-intensive and high GHG emissions industry. Thailand was the fourth highest ranking ceramic tableware exporting country in the world. However, information on GHG emission from this industry was limited. This research aimed to investigate the carbon dioxide(CO2) intensity of CTI in Thailand and the annual projections of GHG emission during 2017–2050 with different GDP growths. Then, the energy saving potentials and GHG mitigation measures with their GHG abatement cost for small and large-scale CTI were proposed. The results indicated that the average CO2 intensity of Thailand CTI was 1.75 kg CO2e/kg of product. The projections for GHG emissions of ceramic tableware production with gross domestic production (GDP) growth rates of 1.5, 3.5 (BAU), and 5.5%, reached their maximum emissions at 220,500 t CO2 in 2029, 2022, and 2020, respectively. Under a BAU scenario, ceramic tableware production in 2022 would emit GHG at a rate approximately 1.37 times greater compared to the emissions in 2016. The maximum GHG reduction (100% implementation) was 48,902 t CO2e, accounting for 22% of GHG emissions in 2030. The average mitigation cost was 6.64 USD/t CO2e reduction. This study provided a guideline for the assessment of CO2 intensity and the technical information for long-term GHG emission projection in CTI which could be applied in worldwide.

Livestock are by far the greatest contributor to Australian agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and are projected to account for 72% of total agricultural emissions by 2020. This necessitates the development of GHG mitigation strategies from the livestock sector. Currently there are many research streams investigating the efficacy of GHG mitigation technologies, though most are at the individual animal level. Here we examine the effect of a promising animal-scale intervention - increasing ewe fecundity - on GHG emissions at the whole farm scale. This approach accounts for seasonal climatic influences on farm productivity and the dynamic interactions between variables. The study used a biophysical model and was based on real data from a property in south-eastern Australia that currently runs a self-replacing prime lamb enterprise. The breeding flock was a composite cross-bred genotype segregating for the FecB gene (after the 'fecundity Booroola' trait observed in Australian Merinos), with typical lambing rates of 150-200% lambs per ewe. Lambs were born in mid-winter (July) and were weaned and sold at 18 weeks of age at the beginning of summer (December). Livestock continuously grazed pastures of phalaris, cocksfoot and subterranean clover and were supplied with barley grain as supplementary feed in seasons when pasture biomass availability was low. Biophysical variables including pasture phenology and flock dynamics were simulated on a daily time-step using the model GrassGro with historical weather data from 1970 to 2012. Whole farm GHG emissions were computed with GrassGro outputs and methodology from the Australian National Greenhouse Accounts Inventory (DCCEE, 2012). Increasing ewe fecundity from 1.0 lamb per ewe at birth (equivalent to scanning rates at pregnancy of 80% of ewes with single lambs, 17% with twins and 3% empty) to 1.5 (scanning rates of 20% ewes with singles, 51% with twins, 26% with triplets and 3% empty as observed at the property) reduced mean emissions intensity from 9.3 to 7.3 t CO2-equivalents/t animal product and GHG emissions per animal sold by 32%. Increasing fecundity reduced average lamb sale liveweight from 42 to 40 kg, but this was offset by an increase in annual sheep sales from 8 to 12 head/ha and an increase in average annual meat production from 410 to 540 kg liveweight/ha. A key benefit associated with increasing sheep fecundity is the ability to increase enterprise productivity whilst remaining environmentally sustainable. For the same long-term average annual stocking rate as an enterprise running genotypes with lower fecundity, it was shown that genotypes with high fecundity such as those on the property could either increase meat and wool productivity from 449 to 571 kg/ha (clean fleece weight plus liveweight at sale) with little change in net GHG emissions, or reduce net GHG emissions from 4.1 to 3.2 t CO2-equivalents/ha for similar average annual farm productivity. In either case, GHG emissions intensity was reduced by about 2.1 t CO2-equivalents/t animal product. From a methodological perspective, this study revealed that differences in computing the relative effect of increased fecundity on total farm production, GHG emissions or emissions intensity either within or across years were relatively small. For example, the mean difference in emissions intensity of an enterprise obtaining 1.5 lambs per ewe relative to an enterprise obtaining 1.0 lamb per ewe computed within years was -25%, whereas the relative difference in mean emissions intensity across years was -27%. Such findings justify the traditional approach of previous GHG mitigation studies which compare differences (e.g. abatement potential) between values averaged across multiple-year simulation runs, as opposed to the method of computing the differences between intervention strategies within years then comparing the average difference.

<p><strong>Background</strong>. Feeding cattle in small-scale silage-based dairy production systems can improve their production efficiency while reducing greenhouse gas emissions. <strong>Objective</strong>. To determine the effect of partial replacement of corn silage with sorghum silage on the concentration of secondary metabolites in terms of Total Phenols (TP), Total Tannins (TT), and Condensed Tannins (CT), as well as to estimate methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. <strong>Methodology</strong>. The treatments were analyzed with a split-plot experimental design where the treatments (main plot) were; T1 = 50% sorghum silage cv Top Green + 50% corn silage, T2 = 50% sorghum silage cv Caña Dulce + 50% corn silage, T3 = 100% corn silage cv Cenzontle (control), and the measurement periods were the minor plots. <strong>Results</strong>. Inclusion of sorghum silage decreased enteric methane and carbon dioxide emissions (P<0.05), even though the concentration of phytochemical compounds among cultivars was not variable (P>0.05). <strong>Implications</strong>. Understanding the impact of changing forage chemical composition on reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in dairy systems is an important issue for mitigating climate change. <strong>Conclusions</strong>. The inclusion of sorghum silage in this study slightly reduced enteric methane and carbon dioxide emissions. Under these conditions, it is suggested that more information be provided on greenhouse gas emission factors and mitigation strategies in small-scale production systems.</p>

The impact of uncertainties on predicted greenhouse gas emissions of dairy cow production systems

Assessment of renewable energy and energy efficiency plans in Thailand’s industrial sector