Abstract
The ferrous metal industry is one of the biggest source of industrial energy consumption and CO2 emissions in China. This paper first employs the LMDI model to explore what influenced CO2 emissions from China's ferrous metal industry from 1991 to 2016. The CO2 emission variation is decomposed into industry activity effect (ΔCG), energy intensity effect (ΔCEI), industry scale effect (ΔCL), energy structure effect (ΔCES), industry structure effect (ΔCIS) and emission coefficient effect (ΔCCOE). The grey prediction method and scenario analysis are then adopted to investigate the CO2 emission mitigation potential in China's ferrous metal industry during 2017–2030. The results reveal that: 1) CO2 emissions from China's ferrous metal industry grew dramatically —by 508.35%— from 213.48 Mt in 1991 to 1298.71 Mt in 2016; 2) overall, ΔCG was the leading aggravating factor and ΔCEI was key mitigating factor of emissions from the ferrous metal industry, while ΔCL and structural factors played minor roles; 3) if the policies for the 13th five-year plan period are enforced vigorously, CO2 emissions from China's ferrous metal industry could be reduced by 724.07 Mt in 2020. Policy suggestions are proposed for emission abatement in China's ferrous metal industry.
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