An outlook of end-use energy demand based on a clean energy and technology transformation of the household sector in Nepal

Abstract

About two-thirds of Nepal's final energy is consumed by households. Traditional solid biomass constitutes most of the households' energy needs, and cooking is by far their most important energy-consuming activity. This paper analyzes household energy use patterns in Nepal through the year 2051 based on a bottom-up simulation accounting framework for seven provinces and the capital city, differentiated by rural and urban areas and seven end-uses. Six scenarios involving different growth paths for socio-economic and energy system development are considered. Unlike in developed economies, the study finds that country's household energy demand will continue to rise in the future, but it is heterogeneous across the provinces. With the government's recent SDG7 initiatives, electricity is expected to play a key role in the household's future energy mix, although biomass use will remain significant but in declining trends. The study also identifies priority provinces where additional action is needed to improve access to clean and affordable modern energy services. Assertive policy initiatives are needed beyond 2030 to pursue clean energy market establishments and end-use technological developments for the expected growth of household clean energy demand.