Abstract

We propose an original mathematical model according to a Bayesian approach explaining uncertainty from a point of view connected with vector spaces. A parameter space can be represented by means of random quantities by accepting the principles of the theory of concordance into the domain of subjective probability. We observe that metric properties of the notion of $\alpha$-product mathematically fulfill the ones of a coherent prevision of a bivariate random quantity. We introduce fundamental metric expressions connected with transformed random quantities representing changes of origin. We obtain a posterior probability law by applying the Bayes' theorem into a geometric context connected with a two-dimensional parameter space.

Highlights

  • We make clear some essential points in order to found our geometric model

  • We propose an original mathematical model according to a Bayesian approach explaining uncertainty from a point of view connected with vector spaces

  • We observe that metric properties of the notion of α-product mathematically fulfill the ones of a coherent prevision of a bivariate random quantity

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Summary

Introduction

A quantity is random for a given individual at a certain instant when he does not know its true value. He is in doubt between two or more than two possible values. The logic of certainty does not use the notion of probability (Jeffreys, 1961), (de Finetti, 1982a). The first aspect deals with situations of non-knowledge or ignorance or uncertainty These situations determine a set of possible alternatives of a random quantity with respect to a given set of information. Probability is distributed as a mass by a given individual over the domain of possible alternatives before knowing which is the true alternative to be verified “a posteriori”. Conditions of coherence are objective (de Finetti, 2011)

The Point Under Discussion
Vector Representation of an One-Dimensional Parameter Space
Invariance Under Translation of a Transformed Random Quantity
Tensor Representation of a Two-Dimensional Parameter Space
It is expressed by
A Metric on an One-Dimensional Parameter Space
A Metric on a Two-Dimensional Parameter Space
The Bayes’ Theorem Connected With a Two-Dimensional Parameter Space
10. Conclusions

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