An Ordering Decision-Making Approach on Spare Parts for Civil Aircraft Based on a One-Sample Prediction

Abstract

Ordering decision-making on spare parts is crucial in maximizing aircraft utilization and minimizing operating costs. This paper develops an approach of ordering decision-making for civil aircraft spare parts based on a one-sample prediction. Engineering background for line replace units, failure/replace processes, and spare parts requirements are represented. The model for future failure time is proposed based on the conditional probability density function of the failure time. A Weibull process with failure truncated and time truncated is employed to establish the prediction model. The point estimates and prediction bounds for future failure time are provided. Moreover, a prediction procedure for spare parts is investigated by identifying the ordering time and ordering quantity. Finally, a case study illustrates the developed method by predicting the spare parts as well as future failure time for engine-driven pumps. The predicted results are compared with the reality to demonstrate the effectiveness of the developed method.