Abstract
空间在轨物体的轨道异常是航天工程及预警领域普遍关注的问题，及时发现轨道异常意义重大，通过分析空间物体的轨道异常，可以及时发现和识别规避事件或碰撞事件，还可以了解监测网的能力.本文提出一种基于TLE数据的简单的轨道异常分析方法——长半轴变化法.该方法快速有效，应用到低轨在用卫星和美俄解体碎片的异常分析中，异常物体正确识别率可达到100%；对美俄解体碎片进行轨道异常分析后得出，美国空间监视网可以稳定探测90%以上的解体碎片.
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