An Optimized Machine Learning Approach for Forecasting Thermal Energy Demand of Buildings

Abstract

Recent developments in indirect predictive methods have yielded promising solutions for energy consumption modeling. The present study proposes and evaluates a novel integrated methodology for estimating the annual thermal energy demand (DAN), which is considered as an indicator of the heating and cooling loads of buildings. A multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural network is optimally trained by symbiotic organism search (SOS), which is among the strongest metaheuristic algorithms. Three benchmark algorithms, namely, political optimizer (PO), harmony search algorithm (HSA), and backtracking search algorithm (BSA) are likewise applied and compared with the SOS. The results indicate that (i) utilizing the properties of the building within an artificial intelligence framework gives a suitable prediction for the DAN indicator, (ii) with nearly 1% error and 99% correlation, the suggested MLP-SOS is capable of accurately learning and reproducing the nonlinear DAN pattern, and (iii) this model outperforms other models such as MLP-PO, MLP-HSA and MLP-BSA. The discovered solution is finally expressed in an explicit mathematical format for practical uses in the future.