Abstract
Abstract. A new approach was recently proposed to compute climatological statistical sensitivities. It was applied on an already available classification of Mediterranean intense cyclones. However, those sensitivity results are questionable due to the limited homogeneity of some cyclone classes, which severely hampers the application of the statistical sensitivity analysis technique. In this study, a new classification of Mediterranean intense cyclones is built with the aim of improving the reliability of the final climatological sensitivity results. In addition to implementing a regional classification and a subsequent division according to the preceding conditions that lead to cyclone formation, a cluster pruning is applied to maximize the homogeneity of the classes. The increased cluster homogeneity and the higher significance of the obtained sensitivity estimates are quantified. Furthermore, the improved representativeness of the sensitivity fields derived after cluster pruning is tested and compared to previous results by means of numerical experiments. Eventually, summary sensitivity fields highlight the European Atlantic coasts, central and western Europe, the central and western Mediterranean basin and north african lands as sensitive regions for the evolution of these Mediterranean high-impact systems. Although some outstanding improvements are confirmed in this study, a further verification experiments are needed to objectively verify the sensitivity results and build solid confidence on the method.
Highlights
Under the ever-growing need from the public and authorities in accountable and relevant weather predictions, multiple approaches are currently explored with the primary goal of improving forecast quality
For each of the 23 clusters listed in Table 1, sensitivity fields are calculated following the methodology proposed by GH09
It is noteworthy that in this study we enhance the classification of Mediterranean intense cyclones used in the sensitivity analyses but we add some improvements to the sensitivity computations
Summary
Under the ever-growing need from the public and authorities in accountable and relevant weather predictions, multiple approaches are currently explored with the primary goal of improving forecast quality. EUCOS, which stands for EUMETNET Composite Observing System (http://www.eucos.net), is an operational EUMETNET programme whose main objective is the design and management of operational observations on a Europeanwide scale to improve NWP without increasing the overall cost. To accomplish this goal efficiently, information regarding the spatial and temporal distribution of forecast sensitivities should be available in a so called Climatology of Forecast Sensitivities. That is, remodeling decisions should take into special account hazardous weather episodes because of the larger potential benefits of the associated forecast improvements
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a call
