An Optimization-Evaluation Agricultural Water Planning Approach Based on Interval Linear Fractional Bi-Level Programming and IAHP-TOPSIS

Yan Zhang,Ping Guo,Fan Zhang,Hua Zhu

doi:10.3390/w11051094

Abstract

In this study, an interval linear fractional bi-level programming (ILFBP) model was developed for managing irrigation-water resources under uncertainty. The ILFBP can fully address system fairness, uncertainties, and the leader–follower relationship of decision makers in the optimization process, which can better reflect the complexity of real decision-making process and help formulate reasonable water policies. An interactive fuzzy coordination algorithm based on satisfaction degree was introduced to solve the ILFBP model. In order to evaluate the applicability of optimization schemes, the interval analytic hierarchy process (IAHP) and the interval technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution (TOPSIS) method were integrated as IAHP-TOPSIS. To verify its validity, the developed optimization-evaluation framework was applied to an irrigation water management case study in the middle reaches of the Shiyang River Basin, located in the northwest China. The ILFBP model results show that the total water allocation is [6.73, 7.37] × 108 m3, saving nearly 0.9 × 108 m3 more than the current situation. The benefit per unit of water is [2.38, 2.95] yuan/m3, nearly 0.4 yuan/m3 more than the status quo, and the Gini coefficient is within a reasonable range of [0.35, 0.38]. The ILFBP model can well balance economic benefits and system fairness. Through the evaluation bases on IAHP-TOPSIS, the results of ILFBP show better water allocation effects and applicability than the other two models in this study area. Furthermore, due to various characteristics such as geographical location, population and area, there are three irrigation districts, Xiying, Donghe, and Qinghe, showing higher importance than others when considering regional water allocation. These findings can provide useful information for limited water resource managers and help decision makers determine effective alternatives of water resource planning under uncertainty.

Highlights

Water is an indispensable and essential resource for human survival and development.With the development of social economy, the conflicts between supplies and demands of water resources have become increasingly prominent [1]
The main objective of this study is to develop an optimization-evaluation approach for agricultural water planning based on the interval linear fractional bi-level programming (ILFBP) and interval analytic hierarchy process (IAHP)-TOPSIS methods to help decision makers formulate reasonable regional water policies
An interval linear fractional bi-level programming (ILFBP) model was developed for irrigation-water allocation planning under uncertainty

Summary

Introduction

Water is an indispensable and essential resource for human survival and development. With the development of social economy, the conflicts between supplies and demands of water resources have become increasingly prominent [1]. In the semi-arid and arid regions, water deficits limit sustainable development of the local agriculture, and more efforts should be made to improve the usage efficiency of limited irrigation water [4]. The agricultural water management systems are complicated with multiple uncertainties, including inexactness, fuzziness, and randomness existed in precipitation and river runoff, crop market prices variations, and irrigation target adjustments. The necessity of dealing with these uncertainties brings a lot of difficulties in the planning processes of irrigation water management [5,6]

Objectives

Methods

Results

Discussion

Conclusion