Abstract
Conventional agriculture faces significant challenges as world population grows, food demand increases, and mobility becomes increasingly constrained. Reducing the distance food needs to travel is an important goal of sustainability and resiliency, particularly in the context of a variety of transportation challenges. In this study, we developed a linear programming optimization method to assess the potential of regions to meet dietary requirements with more localized and diversified agricultural systems. Emphasis is on minimizing the distance between population centers and available cropland, accounting for variations in yield among 40 of the most marketable food crops that can be grown in the Midwestern United States. We also derived two new metrics to guide strategic planning toward more localized systems: the "per capita cropland requirement" and the "regional self-sustainability index."Overall, we conclude that the eight-state study region would require an average of 0.49 acres (0.2 ha) per consumer with an average absolute deviation of 0.09 acres (.04 ha). The self-sustainability index is estimated at 9.3, which indicates that the region has 9.3 times the cropland needed to become self-sustaining. Targeted dietary recommendations could potentially be met within a population-weighted average distance of 13.6 miles (21.9 km).
Highlights
Commodity farming evolved out of the massproduction era, when the cost to overcome distance was small compared to the labor savings generated by highly capitalized, single-purpose equipment
We introduce two new terms to compare the food system potential of each location: (1) the “per capita cropland requirement” indicates the total cropland needed to produce a comprehensive mix of food products for one person, taking into account loss factors and geographic variability in yields, and (2) the “regional self-sustainability index” indicates the ratio of the cropland available to the cropland needed to supply the same diet to the entire population residing within a targeted area
The New York study introduced the concept of a Human Nutritional Equivalent (HNE), which the authors defined as “a basket of food that contains representatives from all food groups combined in the proper proportions to constitute a complete diet for one person for one year.”
Summary
Commodity farming evolved out of the massproduction era, when the cost to overcome distance was small compared to the labor savings generated by highly capitalized, single-purpose equipment. Farm-to-market systems are likely to follow a similar path, in response to a backlog of transportation-related costs that have accrued over the same timeframe. (3) Public knowledge that transportation contributes to climate change implies it is likely to become a target for remedial sanctions at some point in the future. For these reasons, food system stakeholders both large and small will need to become increasingly focused on minimizing the transportation dependency of food systems
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