An optimisation methodology of artificial neural network models for predicting solar radiation: a case study

Abstract

The right design and the high efficiency of solar energy systems require accurate information on the availability of solar radiation. Due to the cost of purchase and maintenance of the radiometers, these data are not readily available. Therefore, there is a need to develop alternative ways of generating such data. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) are excellent and effective tools for learning, pinpointing or generalising data regularities, as they have the ability to model nonlinear functions; they can also cope with complex ‘noisy’ data. The main objective of this paper is to show how to reach an optimal model of ANNs for applying in prediction of solar radiation. The measured data of the year 2007 in Ghardaia city (Algeria) are used to demonstrate the optimisation methodology. The performance evaluation and the comparison of results of ANN models with measured data are made on the basis of mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). It is found that MAPE in the ANN optimal model reaches 1.17 %. Also, this model yields a root mean square error (RMSE) of 14.06 % and an MBE of 0.12. The accuracy of the outputs exceeded 97 % and reached up 99.29 %. Results obtained indicate that the optimisation strategy satisfies practical requirements. It can successfully be generalised for any location in the world and be used in other fields than solar radiation estimation.