An Optimal Interpolation–Based Snow Data Assimilation for NOAA’s Unified Forecast System (UFS)

Abstract

Abstract Within the National Weather Service’s Unified Forecast System (UFS), snow depth and snow cover observations are assimilated once daily using a rule-based method designed to correct for gross errors. While this approach improved the forecasts over its predecessors, it is now quite outdated and is likely to result in suboptimal analysis. We have then implemented and evaluated a snow data assimilation using the 2D optimal interpolation (OI) method, which accounts for model and observation errors and their spatial correlations as a function of distances between the observations and model grid cells. The performance of the OI was evaluated by assimilating daily snow depth observations from the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) and the Interactive Multisensor Snow and Ice Mapping System (IMS) snow cover data into the UFS, from October 2019 to March 2020. Compared to the control analysis, which is very similar to the method currently in operational use, the OI improves the forecast snow depth and snow cover. For instance, the unbiased snow depth root-mean-squared error (ubRMSE) was reduced by 45 mm and the snow cover hit rate increased by 4%. This leads to modest improvements to globally averaged near-surface temperature (an average reduction of 0.23 K in temperature bias), with significant local improvements in some regions (much of Asia, the central United States). The reduction in near-surface temperature error was primarily caused by improved snow cover fraction from the data assimilation. Based on these results, the OI DA is currently being transitioned into operational use for the UFS. Significance Statement Weather and climate forecasting systems rely on accurate modeling of the evolution of atmospheric, oceanic, and land processes. In addition, model forecasts are substantially improved by continuous incorporation of observations to models, through a process called data assimilation. In this work, we upgraded the snow data assimilation used in the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) global weather prediction system. Compared to the method currently in operational use, the new snow data assimilation improves both the forecasted snow quantity and near-surface air temperatures over snowy regions. Based on the positive results obtained in the experiments presented here, the new snow data assimilation method is being implemented in the NWS operational forecast system.