An open online simulation strategy for hydrological ensemble forecasting

Abstract

Hydrological ensemble forecasting is crucial for flood forecasting. However, the centralized architecture of hydrological ensemble forecasting systems requires time- and labour-intensive downloads and the installation of executable models and methods. This usage pattern impedes the reusability of forecasting models and techniques. To address these limitations, we propose an open online simulation strategy with three components: model sharing and integration, data sharing and adaptation, and parameter optimization and recommendation. The model sharing and integration method helps researchers publish forecasting models as web services for online simulation and integration. A reusable data sharing and adaptation method is established for managing and processing data to meet model requirements. In addition, the optimization and recommendation methods are intended to assist researchers in optimizing and recommending model parameters online based on the characteristics of different research regions. Finally, a prototype system and case study are constructed to verify the strategy's feasibility and capability.