An observation-based assessment of the influences of air temperature and snow depth on soil temperature in Russia

Abstract

This study assessed trends in the variability of soil temperature (TSOIL) using spatially averaged observation records from Russian meteorological land stations. The contributions of surface air temperature (SAT) and snow depth (SND) to TSOIL variation were quantitatively evaluated. Composite time series of these data revealed positive trends during the period of 1921–2011, with accelerated increases since the 1970s. The TSOIL warming rate over the entire period was faster than the SAT warming rate in both permafrost and non-permafrost regions, suggesting that SND contributes to TSOIL warming. Statistical analysis revealed that the highest correlation between SND and TSOIL was in eastern Siberia, which is underlain by permafrost. SND in this region accounted for 50% or more of the observed variation in TSOIL. TSOIL in the non-permafrost region of western Siberia was significantly correlated with changes in SAT. Thus, the main factors associated with TSOIL variation differed between permafrost and non-permafrost regions. This finding underscores the importance of including SND data when assessing historical and future variations and trends of permafrost in the Northern Hemisphere.