An investigation on dynamic connectedness of commodity market with financial market during the Russia–Ukraine invasion

Abstract

PurposeThis study unravels an attempt to investigate the dynamic connectedness of agri-commodity (wheat) of Russia with 10 financial markets of wheat importing counties during the Russia–Ukraine invasion.Design/methodology/approachThis study took the daily prices of Wheat FOB Black Sea Index (Russia) along with stock indices of 10 major wheat-importing nations of Russia and Ukraine. The time frame for this study ranges from February 24, 2022 to July 31, 2022. This time frame was selected since it fully examines all of the effects of the crisis. The conditional correlations and volatility spillovers of these indices are predicted using the DCC-GARCH model, Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) and Baruník and Křehlík (2018) models.FindingsIt is found that there is dynamic linkage of agri-commodity of with stock markets of Iraq, Pakistan and Tanzania in short run while stock markets of Egypt, Turkey, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Brazil and Iraq are spilled by agri-commodity in long run. In addition, it documents that there is large spillover in short run than medium and long run comparatively. This signifies that investors have more diversification opportunity in short run then long run contemplating to invest in these markets.Originality/valueTo the best of the authors’ understanding this is the first study to undertake the dynamic linkage of agri-commodity (wheat) of Russia with financial market of select importing counties during the Russia–Ukraine invasion.