An Investigation of Ocean Model Uncertainties Through Ensemble Forecast Experiments in the Southwest Atlantic Ocean

Abstract

AbstractOcean general circulation models even with realistic behavior still incorporate large uncertainties from external forcing. This study involves the realization of ensemble experiments using a regional model configured for the Southwest Atlantic Ocean to investigate uncertainties derived from the external forcing such as the atmosphere and bathymetry. The investigation is based on perturbing atmospheric surface fluxes and bathymetry through a series of ensemble experiments. The results showed a strong influence of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone on the underlying ocean, 7 days after initialization. In this ocean region, precipitation and radiation flux perturbations notably impacted the sea surface salinity and sea surface temperature, by producing values of ensemble spread that exceeded 0.08 and 0.2 °C, respectively. Wind perturbations extended the impact on currents at surface, with the spread exceeding 0.1 m/s. The ocean responded faster to the bathymetric perturbations especially in shallow waters, where the dynamics are largely dominated by barotropic processes. Ensemble spread was the largest within the thermocline layer and in ocean frontal regions after a few months, but by this time, the impact on the modeled ocean obtained from either atmospheric or bathymetric perturbations was quite similar, with the internal dynamics dominating over time. In the vertical, the sea surface temperature exhibited high correlation with the subsurface temperature of the shallowest model levels within the mixed layer. Horizontal error correlations exhibited strong flow dependence at specific points on the Brazil and Malvinas Currents. This analysis will be the basis for future experiments using ensemble‐based data assimilation in the Southwest Atlantic Ocean.