An Investigation of Future-Oriented Thinking in Middle Childhood

Abstract

The overall aim of the current thesis was to explore three key components of future-oriented thinking, namely episodic future thinking (EFT), episodic foresight, and prospective memory (PM), in middle childhood. The developmental literature examining each of these future-oriented abilities has generally focused on their emergence in the preschool years, with less known about how these abilities present in middle childhood. In addition, research investigating what cognitive mechanisms may drive these abilities in this age band is limited and findings of those studies that have been conducted are inconsistent. Lastly, the literature has predominantly examined EFT, episodic foresight, and PM in isolation, and research has only just begun to explore interrelations between these future-oriented constructs. The first empirical study therefore aimed to investigate whether EFT ability was associated with age and to examine what cognitive mechanisms may contribute to this skill. The second empirical study aimed to examine, for the first time, whether episodic foresight was associated with age across middle childhood. A second aim of this study was to provide the first investigation of the cognitive mechanisms that may contribute to episodic foresight in this age group, with the particular interest in whether EFT contributed to episodic foresight. The final empirical study aimed to explore whether age was associated with children’s PM performance across event-based and time-based PM tasks. An additional aim of this study was to explore the cognitive abilities that contribute to children’s performance on both event-based and time-based PM tasks, with a particular interest in the contribution of EFT. A single sample of 80 children aged 8 to 12 years were recruited for this research project. Study 1 indicated greater EFT ability was associated with age, consistent with some of the limited studies previously conducted with this age group. Study 1 also demonstrated strong evidence regarding the contribution from episodic memory to children’s EFT and a lack of contribution from executive functions. Study 2 was the first study to examine episodic foresight beyond the preschool years. Results of this study provided the first evidence of an association between age and better episodic foresight performance across the ages of 8 to 12 years. In addition, Study 2 identified age and IQ as significant contributors to successful episodic foresight performance, while retrospective memory, executive functions, and EFT were not found to contribute. The lack of contribution from EFT may have been due to the specific form of episodic foresight task used in this study, which did not require a specific scenario to be envisaged. Further research is now required to investigate whether EFT contributes to other types of episodic foresight task that involve clear scenarios that can be envisaged. The results of Study 3 indicated age was significantly correlated with performance on both event-based and time-based PM tasks. The findings also clearly revealed age, retrospective memory, and EFT were significant contributors to event-based PM performance, while retrospective memory was the only significant contributor to time-based PM performance. Furthermore, the results clearly demonstrated a lack of contribution from executive functions to performance on both task types. Importantly, Study 3 demonstrated that EFT selectively contributed to children’s event-based PM performance. This finding is consistent with the only other study in this age band and used a more comprehensive set of predictors than this previous study. The current research provided novel insights into the profile of children’s future-oriented thinking across the middle childhood period. The findings regarding age-related improvements in EFT, episodic foresight, and PM help to bridge the gap in understanding of the development of these abilities between their emergence in the preschool years and their presentation later in development. Longitudinal research that extends from early childhood to adulthood is now needed to provide a thorough understanding of the developmental trajectory of these abilities across the lifespan. In addition, the current research revealed a clear pattern of results regarding the cognitive mechanisms that contribute to each of these abilities, providing some clarity to the previously mixed findings in the children’s future oriented-thinking literature. Results regarding the inter-relationships between the future-oriented constructs also provided an important extension to current understanding of future-oriented thinking as a broader taxonomy. Furthermore, the current findings bring attention to the need for further theoretical distinction between different forms of episodic foresight and the cognitive processes that contribute to this skill. Overall, the findings from the current thesis have important implications for children’s daily living. In particular, greater understanding of future-oriented thinking in the middle childhood period gained from this thesis may assist in fostering the development of these abilities early in life. This in turn will enable parents and teachers to create reasonable expectations regarding children’s capacity to use these skills in their everyday functioning, thereby maximising success and minimising failure.