An Investigation of Different Approaches for Probabilistic Cost and Time Estimation of Rigless P&A in Subsea Multi-Well Campaign

Abstract

Abstract High demand for plug and abandonment (P&A) of subsea wells in the forthcoming years on Norwegian Continental Shelf, low availability and high daily rate of semisubmersible rigs as well as high proportion of P&A cost to total cost of drilling exploration wells challenge industry and intensify looking for alternatives and rigless technologies which can make P&A operation more cost effective and release time of semisubmersible rig earlier. Light well intervention vessels currently can take over some parts of P&A operation and release time of semisubmersible rigs in order to function in drilling and completing of new wells. In addition these vessels have a low daily rate compared to semisubmersible rigs and decrease cost associated with P&A. A systematic yet simple approach is required to acquire a correct picture for expenditure and time of these alternative technologies. In this paper, potentials and experiences of light well intervention vessels for P&A and benefits associated with them will be discussed. An example case is considered wherein a new technology is deployed from a light well intervention vessel to set surface plugs in a multi-well campaign. Thereafter, benefits associated with application of this rigless technology are discussed and highlighted. The paper will discuss different approaches for structuring probabilistic time and cost estimation of multi-well P&A campaigns discussing at which level these should be performed and what is the most appropriate approach with respect to modularity and efficiency. This will also be seen in relation to the Oil and Gas UK cost estimation guideline for P&A and the NORSOK technical specification. The objective is to keep the simulations simple while still acquiring the correct range of time and cost for multi-well P&A operation in order to make the proposed approach applicable for the industry.