An investigation into the sensitivity of the atmospheric chlorine and bromine loading using a globally averaged mass balance model

Abstract

Abstract Two globally averaged mass balance models have been developed to investigate the sensitivity and future level of atmospheric chlorine and bromine as a result of the emission of 14 chloro- and 3 bromo-carbons. The models use production, growth, lifetime and concentration data for each of the halocarbons and divide the production into one of eight uses, these being aerosol propellants, cleaning agents, blowing agents in open and closed cell foams, non-hermetic and hermetic refrigeration, fire retardants and a residual “other” category. Each use category has an associated emission profile which is built into the models to take into account the proportion of halocarbon retained in equipment for a characteristic period of time before its release. Under the Montreal Protocol 3 requirements, a peak chlorine loading of 3.8 ppb is attained in 1994, which does not reduce to 2.0 ppb (the approximate level of atmospheric chlorine when the ozone hole formed) until 2053. The peak bromine loading is 22 ppt, also in 1994, which decays to 12 ppt by the end of next century. The models have been used to (i) compare the effectiveness of Montreal Protocols 1, 2 and 3 in removing chlorine from the atmosphere, (ii) assess the influence of the delayed emission assumptions used in these models compared to immediate emission assumptions used in previous models, (iii) assess the relative effect on the chlorine loading of a tightening of the Montreal Protocol 3 restrictions, and (iv) calculate the influence of chlorine and bromine chemistry as well as the faster phase out of man-made methyl bromide on the bromine loading.