An intuitionistic fuzzy rough model for maritime transportation chains under disaster effects: the case of COVID-19

Abstract

The outbreak of COVID-19 has caused disruptions in port transport infrastructure and shipping, resulting in higher shipping rates in 2022. This article aims to assess the extent of COVID-19 risks on the capacity and concentration of traffic flows, and evaluate the degree of imbalance in the transport system during 2020-2021 compared to the previous period of 2018-2019. The data is analyzed using the Intuitionistic Fuzzy Rough set, which allows the evaluation of multiple heterogeneous measures to produce an aggregate outcome. The model is based on the intensity of non-stationary incoming and outgoing traffic, as well as the intervals between separate ship calls. The data obtained from the study shows the dynamics of changes in traffic flows under the influence of COVID-19. The results indicate a minimal degree of its influence, which did not lead to any failures or modifications in the composition of traffic flows. The method can also allow for the development of complex simulation models to assess the limit of potential deviations, after which, with a high degree of probability, deformation of traffic flows is possible.