An Interspecies Prediction of the Risk of Radiation-Induced Mortality

Abstract

Mortality data for B6CF1 mice exposed to 60Co gamma rays for the duration of life were used to make quantitative predictions of age-specific mortality observed in comparably exposed beagles. Simple Kaplan-Meier survival curves for the beagles and their 95% confidence intervals were computed for each dose-rate group observed. A dose-response equation was estimated from the mortality data for mice using a proportional hazard model. The dose-response model for mice was then used to generate predicted survivorship curves at dose rates that would recreate the dose burdens observed in the beagle at comparable points within the life span of the two organisms. When these predicted survivorship curves were scaled to adjust for species differences in the life span of control animals, the predictions for the mouse fell within the confidence intervals observed for the beagle. The successful interspecies extrapolation of age-specific mortality risks for species as different as the mouse and dog enhances both the value of studies involving laboratory animals and the potential relevance of the animal studies to the prediction of health effects in humans.