An interpretative structural model based on SPSS for the interaction analysis between risk factors of power grid

Yichao Huang,Ruanming Huang,Mingxing Guo,Qin Jiang,Shujuan Chen,Xinjian Li,Yuqing He,T.Y Fang,V Khaletski

doi:10.1051/e3sconf/201913602018

Abstract

The risk factors influencing the analysis of power grid investment are complicated and highly coupled. The analysis of the interaction of risk factors based on the traditional interpretative structural model, using the expert score to form correlation matrix, which is subjective. To increase the quantitative analysis and overcome the drawbacks of traditional model relying on experts’ experience, this paper proposes a new method to construct the interpretative structural model. Firstly, the evaluation index system of power grid investment is constructed, based on this, the collected history data of risk factors are processed and analysed through the correlation analysis of SPSS and the quantitative correlation matrix of risk factors is obtained, then the construction of interpretative structural model is finished. The constructed model provides the basis for the analysis and management of power grid investment.

Highlights

With the insert of large distributed power, the use and spread of smart grid, the risk management of grid power faces a large challenge [1]
The analysis of the interaction of risk factors based on the traditional interpretative structural model, using the expert score to form correlation matrix, which is subjective
To increase the quantitative analysis and overcome the drawbacks of traditional model relying on experts’ experience, this paper proposes a new method to construct the interpretative structural model

Summary

Introduction

With the insert of large distributed power, the use and spread of smart grid, the risk management of grid power faces a large challenge [1]. On the one hand, compared with the single power of traditional energy like thermal power, hydro power and nuclear power, the renewable clean energy like wind power, solar power, tide power have been switched in power grid in user’s end, which makes the risk factors influencing the safety of power grid increase and harder to forecast [2], on the other hand, risk factors influence each other, with the increase of risk factors, the possibility of risk factors influencing each other and forming coupling risk is increasing. The literature [6] proposes an improved interpretative structural model to analyze the renewable energy program, which uses the expert scoring to get the strength of interaction between risk factors but ignoring the quantitative analysis and not being objective enough. To avoid the expert scoring’s objective analysis, an interpretative structural model based on SPSS for the interaction analysis between risk factors of power grid is proposed. Through the correlation matrix of risk factors, the construction of interpretative structural model is finished, the processes of constructing the hierarchical structure model are as follows

Getting the correlation strength matrix B

Forming the adjacent matrix A

Calculating the reachable matrix

Constructing the hierarchical structure model

A2 A3 B1 B2 B3 C1 C2 C3 C4