An interpretable machine learning model for individualized gonadotrophin starting dose selection during ovarian stimulation

Abstract

Research questionCan we develop an interpretable machine learning model that optimizes starting gonadotrophin dose selection in terms of mature oocytes (metaphase II [MII]), fertilized oocytes (2 pronuclear [2PN]) and usable blastocysts? DesignThis was a retrospective study of patients undergoing autologous IVF cycles from 2014 to 2020 (n = 18,591) in three assisted reproductive technology centres in the USA. For each patient cycle, an individual dose–response curve was generated from the 100 most similar patients identified using a K-nearest neighbours model. Patients were labelled as dose-responsive if their dose–response curve showed a region that maximized MII oocytes, and flat-responsive otherwise. ResultsAnalysis of the dose–response curves showed that 30% of cycles were dose-responsive and 64% were flat-responsive. After propensity score matching, patients in the dose-responsive group who received an optimal starting dose of FSH had on average 1.5 more MII oocytes, 1.2 more 2PN embryos and 0.6 more usable blastocysts using 10 IU less of starting FSH and 195 IU less of total FSH compared with patients given non-optimal doses. In the flat-responsive group, patients who received a low starting dose of FSH had on average 0.3 more MII oocytes, 0.3 more 2PN embryos and 0.2 more usable blastocysts using 149 IU less of starting FSH and 1375 IU less of total FSH compared with patients with a high starting dose. ConclusionsThis study demonstrates retrospectively that using a machine learning model for selecting starting FSH can achieve optimal laboratory outcomes while reducing the amount of starting and total FSH used.