An international comparison of 'youth' (15–24) and 'adult' (25–34) homicide 1974–94: Highlighting the US anomaly

Abstract

Youth murder in the USA has given further impetus to the 'gun debate' in American culture. It is argued that if the extent of violent deaths in the USA, compared with the rest of the developed world, was more widely understood, this would improve the likelihood of change. A USA/international comparison of 'youth & adult' (15-34) homicide was undertaken to demonstrate the anomaly of the US homicide situation compared with other major Western countries. All data are extrapolated from the latest WHO mortality rates. Ratios of ratios are calculated from annual US rates since 1974 to demonstrate the changing pattern of 'youth' (15-24) and 'adult' (25-34) homicide with the General Population Rate (GPR) (1974-94). The five-year average homicide rates are analysed in the 10 major countries, by gender and age, to illustrate the different patterns of homicide. The latest numbers of US homicides over 7.75 years, a matching period being the Vietnam War, are compared against the daily average US fatalities during the conflict. Homicide is relatively a rare statistical event, and as slight changes in countries with small populations can disproportionately distort the ratios, such countries are excluded from the analysis. For completeness, all the latest Western homicide rates are given in the appendix. Only countries with populations of 16 million or more were reviewed, these were: Australia, Canada, England and Wales, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, The Netherlands and Spain (1990-95). The main outcome measures were age-related homicide rates per million of population for the international comparison averaged over the latest five years (1990-95), and actual numbers of deaths for the comparison with the Vietnam War casualty rate. Within the context of a decline in US murder GPR, 'youth' homicide has never been higher: up 48% in the last decade. US male and female 'youth and adult' homicide rates were more than five and three times respectively the rate of the next highest country. A substantial number were linked to firearms. Over the past 7.75 years, an average of 37.5 young men and women (15-34) were murdered daily in the USA, approximately 26.7 by firearms, compared with the average of 21.4 US deaths a day during the Vietnam conflict. The chronic toll of possibly preventable deaths represents a serious public health problem.