An international analysis of time varying beta risk in listed real estate securities

Abstract

PurposeListed real estate securities have historically been used to achieve an exposure to the real estate asset class and to obtain a broad spectrum of other specific features such as return enhancement, but whether they must be associated to the direct property or to the broad stock market is deceptive on a merely theoretical basis. Moreover, the global financial crisis (GFC) has questioned their risk/return characteristics. The purpose of this paper is to asses if listed real estate securities are still enough dissimilar from the broad stock market to provide remarkable diversification benefits for a long term investor.Design/methodology/approachThe analysis has been developed on the FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Developed Index and at country level (USA, UK, France, Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong and Australia) from November 2001 to October 2013. The authors analysed the real estate index over a broad market index and adjusted for a possible bias related to heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation, using a least squared regression with Newey-West HAC Correction. A Recursive Least Squares (RLS) was also used to test the stability of the parameters with the CUSUM squared test and the Chow test. Finally the authors tested for cointegration with the Augmented Dickey Fuller and the Engle Granger tests.FindingsThe authors found that after the GFC the Beta-risk related to the stock market has witnessed a sharp increase, but with differences among country. While the USA, the UK and France have experienced a trend similar to the one described for the FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Developed Index, Asian Markets depict a quite stable Beta over the full sample (gradual increase for the Australian market). Evidence of a structural break in conjunction with 2008 crisis has been found only in USA, UK and France.Practical implicationsListed real estate securities, even if characterised by time varying Beta-risk and partially reduced diversification benefits, are still worth to be included in long term horizon portfolios. However, more wary considerations should be drafted before investing in the Asian markets where evidence of cointegration was found only for the Japanese market.Originality/valueAnalysis of post GFC effect on direct property investment vs indirect listed investment worldwide.