An Interim Economic Evaluation of Sweden’s Initial COVID-19 Strategy

Abstract

Sweden adopted a softer public health COVID-19 strategy than most countries by relying on recommendations rather than restrictions. Here we focus on the effects of this choice on the economy (GDP), number of deaths and severe illnesses by comparing Sweden to a comparison group consisting of Denmark and Norway, two countries similar in many aspects to Sweden but that have differed from it in terms of COVID strategies. The Swedish policy resulted in a net loss of USD 27.3 billion (USD 2,650 per capita) stemming mostly from relative loss in GDP (83% of total). Our findings suggest that the costs of the strategy in the form of (monetized) excess deaths and severe illness cannot be justified by benefits in the form of a better economic performance.