An Intent-Based Trajectory Prediction Algorithm for Air Traffic Control

Abstract

Air traffic control operations would require advanced methods for aircraft tracking, intent inference and trajectory prediction. These methods are useful to increase the capacity of the National Airspace System (NAS), without sacrificing its safety. In this paper we propose an algorithm that performs these three tasks accurately. The algorithm utilizes a hybrid estimation algorithm to estimate the aircraft’s state and flight mode. These estimated quantities are then combined with knowledge about the flight plan, the environment and ATC regulations, to estimate the pilot’s intent. Trajectory predictions are computed using the aircraft motion (state and mode estimates) and the inferred intent. The result is an algorithm that provides, in real-time, accurate intent and trajectory predictions for aircraft.