An Intelligent Prediction Model for Oilfield Production Based on Fuzzy Expert System

Abstract

AbstractAn accurate prediction of oilfield production can benefit the oilfield enterprise in formulating a best development planning. Many prediction methods of oilfield production have been proposed in recent years, but these methods are independent relatively, and their applicable development phases and their model parameters are different. Because the oil-gas field development system is a nonlinear, time-varying, and dynamic complex system, it is hard for predictor to choose an appropriate prediction method according to the changing oilfield information. After analyzing the applicability of the existed production prediction methods and the expert experience of choosing the prediction method, this paper proposed an intelligent predicting method for the prediction of oilfield production based on the theory and method of fuzzy expert system and decision support system, whose key technology is fuzzy reasoning technology. The results of simulation experiment show that the intelligent prediction model established in this paper is correct, which can automatically select the optimum prediction model by the computer according to the oilfield information, solves the prediction problem of complex dynamic system and opens a new study way for the prediction theory and practices of oilfield development indices.KeywordsIntelligent predictionoilfield productionfuzzy expert systemfuzzy rulefuzzy reasoning