An integrated water resources management model considering carbon source and sink under uncertainty: A case study of agricultural water-dominated basin

Abstract

The global drive for carbon neutrality promotion through integrated water resource management (IWRM) in the face of burgeoning water demand is of great importance. This study developed an interval fuzzy-credibility chance-constrained multi-objective programming (IFCMP) model for water resources-carbon system (WCS) planning, which not only accounts for multiple uncertainties within system parameters, such as interval, fuzzy, and stochastic, but also effectively balances the conflicting objectives of water scarcity, benefits, emissions, and carbon sinks. The IFCMP-WCS model was applied to an agricultural water-dominated zone in the Tarim River Basin, China. Multiple water-allocation scenarios were examined, encompassing five prefecture-level cities, five departments, and three planning years. The results indicated that: (1) the water deficit was increasing over time, limited by water supply capacity, reaching 0–3.49 × 109 m3 in 2035; (2) as water allocation rises, system benefits and pollutant emissions increase, with the agricultural sector contributing the most economic benefits and pollutant emission; (3) the Tarim River Basin is an important carbon sink area, with the net carbon sink increasing from 8781.7–10,771.1 × 103 to 8851.1–10,937.9 × 103 tonnes during the planning horizon; (4) compared to single-objective models, the IFCMP-WCS model can offer more applicable water resource management options. These findings provide useful information for decision-making regarding IWRM and enhancing the net carbon sink in the Tarim River Basin.