Abstract
PurposeThe paper aims to present an integrated foresight framework and method to support decision-makers who are confronted with today’s complex and rapidly changing world. The method aims at reducing the degree of uncertainty by addressing the inertia or duration of unfolding trends and by placing individual trends in a broader context.Design/methodology/approachThe paper presents a three-layered framework and method for assessing megatrends based on their inertia or duration. It suggests that if long-term trends and key future uncertainties are studied in conjunction at a meta-level and placed in a broader multi-layered framework of trends, it can result in new insights.FindingsThe application of the proposed foresight method helps to systematically place a wide range of unrelated trends and key uncertainties in the context of a broader framework of trends, thereby improving the ability to understand the inertia, direction and mutual interaction of these trends.Research limitations/implicationsThe elaboration of identified trends and key uncertainties is partly case-specific and subject to interpretation. It is aimed at illustrating the potential use of the framework.Practical implicationsThe paper presents a new approach that may, by itself or in combination with existing foresight methods, offer new means for anticipating future developments.Social implicationsThe use of the proposed framework has potential to provide better insight in the complexity of today’s rapid-changing world and the major transitions taking place. It aims to result in sharper foresight by reducing epistemic uncertainty for decision-makers.Originality/valueThe paper demonstrates how megatrends, Kondratieff waves and century-long trends can be placed in an integrated framework and analysed in conjunction.
Highlights
In today’s complex rapid-changing world, trends in various spheres interact in increasingly unpredictable ways so that a single-issue focus is no longer sufficient to deal with emerging threats and opportunities (Habegger, 2010; UNDP GCPSE, 2014)
In today’s complex rapid changing world, where trends in various spheres interact in increasingly unpredictable ways, it is difficult to gain insight into the inertia and expected direction of individual trends
This paper proposes a new integrated three-layered foresight framework and method for assessing various layers of megatrends based on their inertia or duration
Summary
In today’s complex rapid-changing world, trends in various spheres interact in increasingly unpredictable ways so that a single-issue focus is no longer sufficient to deal with emerging threats and opportunities (Habegger, 2010; UNDP GCPSE, 2014). De Haan and Rotmans (2018) discuss the state of play regarding our understanding of the way these transitions unfold and propose a theoretical framework for assessing the role of different types of actors in transitions Another method for addressing Level 3 uncertainty is the three-horizons method that uses a group process to assess three distinct time horizons (i.e. first – present system; second – transition zone; third – future system) with the objective of identifying and creating narratives on possible pathways for organisational transformation towards a desired future (Sharpe et al, 2016; ITC, 2020).
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