An integrated techno-economic decision-support fiscal forecast model for sea cage mariculture enterprises for Asian seabass production in Indian territorial waters

Abstract

Cage-based mariculture ventures in India are expanding, particularly emerging with the most sought-after candidate Asian seabass Lates calcarifer in territorial waters. However, comprehensive techno-economics have not been attempted, and thus hindering the sector's growth potential. To address this, a spatiotemporally validated decision-support model was developed to optimize investment decisions and forecast economic performance. Peer-reviewed contextual data was used to establish scientifically valid assumptions, and robust scenario simulations were conducted to benchmark production systems and species performance. Unit standards were defined and benchmarked for metric deployment for the first time. Capacity Utilization (CU) was found to be critical for success, achieving break-even at 31% CU with set model specifications derived from an inverse linkage with market price dynamics. The enterprise model demonstrated significant economic potential over a ten-year horizon, with low risk due to current policy initiatives by the Indian government. Furthermore, the model architecture and benchmarked specifications derived are adaptable to other candidates with its species-specific biological parameter application. The study can aid stakeholders in planning the enterprise budget. Most importantly, the study highlights the advantages of integrating technological, biological, and financial approaches to mitigate risks and promote the mariculture sector in India. The adaptability of the Asian seabass to farming systems, technical feasibility, and the availability of seeds and suitable sites along the Indian coast have been influential factors and these attributes in specific underpins the profitability. This research provides a way forward for the future of the sector in India, particularly with regard to farming of the Asian seabass, and emphasizes the importance of techno-economic models (TEM) in promoting strategic development of the mariculture sector through open sea cage farming.