An integrated skip convolutional network with residual learning and feature extraction for point and interval prediction of solar radiation

Abstract

Spinning reserve based on solar radiation prediction can ensure the secure operation of large-scale grid-connected photovoltaic systems, but irrational spinning reserve can lead to substantial economic losses and even grid collapse. Therefore, it is imperative to identify characteristic patterns of solar radiation and establish an effective solar radiation prediction model. However, existing hybrid models often struggle to efficiently recognize and leverage input features, compromising the robustness of the model. To address this limitation, this study proposes an integrated skip-convolutional network with residual learning and feature extraction (InSCNet), which enhances the capability to represent information data and thereby improves the stability and accuracy of solar radiation prediction by employing a series of feature extraction and prediction blocks with residual learning. InSCNet includes a sophisticated feature extraction module to effectively address the underutilization of feature information, and it incorporates residual learning, skip-convolution, and recursive networks in the prediction module, reducing the risk of gradient vanishing or gradient explosion while enhancing prediction accuracy. Additionally, an interval estimation method with adaptively chosen distributions is introduced, which extends the prediction interval estimation method. The proposed InSCNet is rigorously evaluated using datasets from three major cities in Pakistan. Experimental results demonstrate that InSCNet outperforms existing solutions in both point and interval predictions.