An integrated risk assessment model: A case of sustainable freight transportation systems

Abstract

The major challenge in the development of sustainable freight transportation systems (SFTSs) is due to the involvement of numerous dynamic uncertainties and intrinsic sustainability risks. Sustainability risks are potential threats that can have undesirable impacts on the sustainability of a system. The main objective of this study is to identify and evaluate the sustainability risks associated with freight transportation systems (FTSs). Accordingly, a risk analysis approach is developed by innovatively integrating the intuitionistic fuzzy set theory and D-number theory to quantitatively model the sustainability risks. Intuitionistic fuzzy numbers can examine both the membership and non-membership degrees of an element while the D-number theory increases the objectivity of assessments by fusing multiple expert judgments. The proposed risk assessment model facilitates the managers in the development of SFTSs by ensuring visibility, predictability and measurability in freight operations. Unlike the conventional perception, the findings indicate that most of the high priority sustainability risks in FTSs are socially induced rather than financially driven and consciousness in people’s conduct is must to attain the positive results. The analysis alerts the freight managers toward the high priority sustainability risks and guides in pro-active strategy formulation and optimum allocation of mitigation resources to minimize disruptions in SFTSs.