An integrated modelling framework for complex systems safety analysis

Abstract

AbstractThe ever‐increasing complexity of engineering systems has fuelled the need for novel and efficient computational tools able to enhance the accuracy of current modelling strategies for industrial systems. Indeed, traditional Fault and Event Tree techniques still monopolize the reliability analysis of complex systems despite their limitations, such as the inability to capture underlying dependencies between components or to include degradation processes and complex maintenance strategies into the analysis. However, the lack of alternative solutions able to tackle large‐scale modelling efficiently has contributed to the continued use of such methodologies, together with their robustness and familiarity well rooted in engineering practice. The current paper defines a novel modelling framework for safety system performance which retains the capabilities of both fault and event tree methods, but also overcomes their limitations. The ambition is to provide a technique for application to real‐world systems preserving a familiar user–model interface and grounding the novel approach in well‐known and established reliability techniques. In order to describe the methodology developed and demonstrate its validity, five case‐studies referring to a simplified industrial plant cooling system are analysed and discussed. Further discussion regarding the scalability of the proposed approach is provided, outlining the advantages of the current implementation and its computational cost.