An Integrated Modelling Approach to Study Future Water Demand Vulnerability in the Montargil Reservoir Basin, Portugal

Carina Almeida,Rodrigo Proença De Oliveira,João Sobrinho,Ramiro Neves,Tiago B Ramos

doi:10.3390/su11010206

Carina Almeida, Rodrigo Proença De Oliveira + Show 3 more

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https://doi.org/10.3390/su11010206

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Abstract

This paper describes an integrated modelling approach to study water use vulnerability in a typical Mediterranean basin under different climate change projections. The soil water assessment tool (SWAT) and the MOHID (from modelo hidrodinâmico) Water model were used to evaluate the impacts of two climate scenarios (GFDL-ESM2M and IPSL-CM5A-LR) on water availability in Montargil’s basin and reservoir (Portugal) during two decadal timelines (2030 and 2060). Reservoir performance metrics were estimated considering also two water demand scenarios: an average of the water demand in the last 10 years; and the largest annual demand of the last 10 years. The SWAT model results showed a future decrease of inflows to the reservoir, with its volumetric reliability decreasing from 100% in the historical simulation to about 60–70% in the IPSL-CM5A-LR climate scenario and 40–50% in the GFDL-ESM2M climate scenario. The time reliability also decreased to less than 30%, while the resiliency for the water demand decreased to an average 20–35% for both climate scenarios. These impacts indicate the importance of the managing systems in an integrative mode to prevent water resources reduction in the region.

Highlights

In the Mediterranean region, water resources are scarce and exhibit large seasonal and intra-annual variability
The sustainability and development of many economic activities in the region depends on water storage in reservoirs, with the construction of infrastructures in river valleys leading to changes in land use that influence the entire water balance and water quality at the basin scale
Basins are subjected to multiple stressors [1,2,3], with climate change emerging as a major concern in river water management

Summary

Introduction

In the Mediterranean region, water resources are scarce and exhibit large seasonal and intra-annual variability. In the Mediterranean countries, surface air temperature is expected to increase while the annual amount of precipitation is expected to decrease [4,5,6,7]. These changes will result in an increasing frequency of extreme climatic events, including droughts [8,9]. Surface and ground water availability is projected to decrease, especially in the centre and south of Portugal [11], stressing the need for developing strategies for adapting water resources management to climate change

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