An integrated model for economic assessment of environmental scenarios for dust stabilization and sustainable flora–fauna ecosystem in international Hamoun wetland

Abstract

The environment of the international three-sibling Hamoun wetlands has been posed to serious natural risks due to the recent drought periods in the Sistan region and the watershed of Hirmand River. The problem of dust propagation has endangered the local life. On the other hand, it seriously threatens the flora–fauna ecosystem of the region. The present study introduces an integrated WEAP simulation and economic optimization model to assess the impacts of dust stabilization and sustainable flora–fauna ecosystem and the water requirement of these scenarios with a focus on reducing natural risks of the environmental sector in the region. Results show that the water demand in two scenarios of dust stabilization and sustainable flora–fauna ecosystem is, on average, 290.8 and 283.9 million m3 per year, which are 230.8 and 223.9 million m3 higher than the reference state (the current account), respectively. In addition, the acreage of the agricultural crops declines sharply in these two scenarios so that they are lower by 11,000 and 13,500 ha versus the current account, respectively. This will cause the profit of the agricultural sector to decline from 1200 billion IRR in the current account to 1040 and 998 billion IRR in these two scenarios, respectively.