An integrated fuzzy regression-data envelopment analysis algorithm for optimum oil consumption estimation with ambiguous data

Abstract

This study introduces an integrated fuzzy regression (FR) data envelopment analysis (DEA) algorithm for oil consumption estimation and optimization with uncertain and ambiguous data. This is quite important as oil consumption estimations deals with several uncertainties due to social, economic factors. Furthermore, DEA is integrated with FR because there is no clear cut as to which FR approach is superior for oil consumption estimation. The standard indicators used in this paper are population, cost of crude oil, gross domestic production (GDP) and annual oil production. Fifteen popular and most cited FR models are considered in the algorithm. Each FR model has different approach and advantages. The input data is divided into train and test data. The FR models have been tuned for all their parameters according to the train data, and the best coefficients are identified. Center of Average Method for defuzzification output process is applied. For determining the rate of error of FR models estimations, the rate of defuzzified output of each model is compared with its actual rate consumption in test data. The efficiency of 15 FR models is examined by the output-oriented Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) model without inputs by considering three types of relative error: RMSE, MAE and MAPE. The applicability and superiority of the proposed algorithm is shown for monthly oil consumption of Canada, United States, Japan and Australia from 1990 to 2005.