Abstract
Engineering systems such as energy production facilities, aviation systems, maritime vessels, etc. continue to grow in size and complexity. This growth has made the identification, quantification and mitigation of risks associated with the failure of such systems so complicated. To solve this problem, several advanced techniques such as Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA), Reliability-Block Diagram (RBD), Reliability-Centered Maintenance (RCM), Monte-Carlo Simulation (MCS), Markov Analysis (MA) and Bayesian Networks (BN) have been developed in the literature. In order to improve the strengths and eliminate the drawbacks of classical techniques, some hybrid models have been recently developed. In this paper, an integrated FTA and FMEA model is proposed for risk analysis of safety-critical systems. Minimal cut sets derived from the fault trees are weighted based on Birnbaum’s measure of importance and then the weights are used to revise Risk Priority Numbers (RPNs) obtained from the use of traditional FMEA techniques. The proposed model is applied to a Blowout Preventer (BOP) system operating under erratic and extreme conditions in a subsea oil and gas field. Though those failures caused by kill valves and hydraulic lines remain among the top risks in the BOP system, significant differences are revealed in risk rankings when the results from the hybrid approach are compared with those obtained from the classical risk analysis methods.
Highlights
A system is considered complex if it comprises of several interacting components whose series/parallel breakdown is impossible and the overall task cannot be obtained by the summation of individual components’ activities [1]
By using the minimal cut sets theory and Birnbaum’s measure of importance, this paper aims to develop a modified Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) approach in the backward integration with Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) tool for the identification, evaluation and prioritization of failure risks in safety-critical systems
Values obtained by the propose method. Though some components such as the kill valves still remain at top priority Though some components such as thewith kill valves still remain at topapriority in RPNinrankings the proposed technique, clear disparity rankings and in the critica
Summary
A system is considered complex if it comprises of several interacting components whose series/parallel breakdown is impossible and the overall task cannot be obtained by the summation of individual components’ activities [1]. Due to the increasing complexity of engineering systems, the identification and evaluation of risks associated with the failure of individual components is usually the starting point for efficient reliability and safety analysis. For this purpose, several advanced techniques such as Fault. The successful application of both the FTA and FMEA techniques has increased their adoption in several reliability and safety engineering analyses studies. By using the minimal cut sets theory and Birnbaum’s measure of importance, this paper aims to develop a modified FMEA approach in the backward integration with FTA tool for the identification, evaluation and prioritization of failure risks in safety-critical systems.
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