An integrated emergency ordering and production planning optimization model with demand and yield uncertainty

Abstract

This paper proposes an integrated emergency ordering and production planning scheme for a multi-item, multi-product problem in which each product is composed of several ingredients. Each item can be supplied from both cheap unreliable suppliers prone to yield uncertainty and expensive reliable suppliers. A two-stage decision-making process is proposed in which orders are placed to the unreliable suppliers during the first stage and an emergency order can be placed in the second stage. In addition, a flexible backup ordering contract between the buyer and emergency supplier is proposed. A similar two-stage decision-making process is considered for production planning, where in the first stage, the main production plan is determined and in the second stage, the decision about a limited increase in the production plan is made as an emergency decision. An integrated ordering and production planning decision process is proposed for the problem. The value of emergency decisions, including the value of emergency ordering and the value of emergency production planning evaluates the effectiveness of the emergency decisions. Due to the staggering size of the problem, sample average approximation method is used to solve the problem.