An integrated economic, energy, and environmental analysis to optimize evaluation of carbon reduction strategies at the regional level: A case study in Zhejiang, China

Abstract

China plays a crucial role in responding to global climate change. Provinces are the main sources of energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions in China's economic and social development. However, it is still unclear how to achieve dual-carbon goals by formulating and implementing local policies to adapt to climate change. In this study, we take Zhejiang Province in China as the research object, based on the LEAP (Low Emissions Analysis Platform) model to construct four social scenarios under different policies, comprehensively considering regional economic characteristics, population, and energy consumption patterns. The results show that to achieve Zhejiang Province's goal of carbon peaking by 2030 while maintaining steady economic growth, additional measures are required to reduce energy consumption intensity or improve the power generation structure. Otherwise, energy demand will increase to 228.06 million tonnes of coal equivalent and carbon emissions will be 487.76 million tonnes in 2050. Moreover, developing clean energy and promoting CCUS technology can continuously reduce carbon emissions to 293.59 and 210.76 million tonnes respectively. The economic viability of CCUS power generation is contingent upon the development of carbon taxes in the future. Once the growth rate reaches 7.2%, power cost will be 167.77 billion RMB and CCUS will become economically advantageous in 2050.