An integrated assessment framework for exploring resilience to climate extremes and nutrition security in Zambia

Abstract

<p>Achieving climate-smart nutrition security in sub-Saharan Africa is an urgent challenge due to increasing climate risks to agricultural production, population growth and food price volatility This necessitates an integrated evidence base that takes into account not only future food system modelling but stakeholder knowledge and the plausible and desirable transformations that these information streams can provide. Accordingly, we use the integrated Future Estimator for Emissions and Diets (iFEED) to explore scenarios of food system transformation towards nutrition security in Zambia. iFEED integrates climate, crop and land use modelling to explore scenarios of relevance to the Zambian policy landscape, as informed by stakeholders. Four scenarios were defined by stakeholders, based on the extent of market connectivity and technological development, and the level of climate risk. Analysis of cross-scenario implications shows that diversification of agricultural production away from maize and towards more nutrient-dense foods is necessary to achieve nutrition security by mid-century, and that agricultural areas must expand unless yield improvements are faster than seen historically. These transformative changes could result in increased greenhouse gas emissions, which may be a necessary trade-off given the need to ensure nutrition security. We also present results from further analysis that shows how crop diversification and irrigation – both identified as key policy topic areas for Zambia – can contribute to building resilience in the face of increasing climate extremes. Results show that irrigation can help to reduce the interannual variability of food production by mid-century – and hence improve nutrition security in an increasingly volatile future climate. Crop diversification also helps to build resilience through crop risk-spreading, and also increases average production. Whilst these transformations are challenging to achieve, the alternative for a nutrition-secure future is to rely increasingly on imports, which would be economically and politically challenging given the large import increases required.</p>