An integrated approach to assessing the effectiveness of investment projects for the construction of industrial facilities under uncertainty

Abstract

The article proposes an approach to assessing the effectiveness of investment projects for the construction of industrial facilities under uncertainty and risk. An integral indicator of the investment project effectiveness is proposed.The purpose of the study is to develop a methodological approach to assessing the economic effectiveness of investment projects for the construction of industrial facilities, which allows taking into account the conditions of uncertainty and risk. The object of the research is investment projects for the construction of industrial facilities of industrial enterprises.The subject of the research is methods and mechanisms for assessing the economic effectiveness of investment projects under uncertainty and risk. Research methodology - analytical, system, graphical methods, methods of detailing, analysis, comparison, grouping, and modeling were used. The main results and conclusions of the study: A scenario model is proposed for assessing the investment project effectiveness for the construction of industrial facilities based on probabilistic analysis, which allows choosing the most optimal one from several projects based on taking into account all possible scenarios for each project simultaneously and making a decision on the basis of their totality. An integral indicator of the investment project effectiveness has been developed that takes into account the significance of the investment project effectiveness criteria, as well as the probability of various scenarios, which allows a comprehensive and uniquely assessment of the investment project effectiveness based on probabilistic analysis.